Wednesday, November 12, 2008

2009 Free Agent Preview

The baseball betting season is over for now, but the offseason brings new life for every team with the hope a move or two could make all the difference for next year.

This particular free agent class is certainly strong at the top. Below is a rundown on some of the top free agents in the 2009 class. Players are ranked in no particular order. I do not think Mark Teixera is a less valuable free agent than Ryan Dempster.

1. Manny Ramirez | LF | L.A. Dodgers - Manny isn’t what he was three or four years ago, but at 37 years old he is still one of the best hitters in the game. He’s an east coast guy, but for the right amount, Manny would surely stay in LA. Defensively, he’s one of the worst in the game so that certainly offsets some of Manny’s value offensively.

2. C.C. Sabathia | LHP | Milwaukee Brewers - Rumors continue to swirl around Sabathia and his ultimate destination. The team he eventually signs with will ultimately get a bonified No. 1 starter who misses bats and combines power with command. Hes in line for a major pay raise, but you know the risk factors for pitchers. Adding to his risk is the heavy, heavy workload Sabathia exhibited for Milwaukee down the stretch.

3. Ben Sheets | RHP | Milwaukee Brewers - Given the health problems Sheets had toward the end of last season, Sheets will almost certainly be a risk to any team that signs him. However, he potentially becomes a bargain because teams will be very weary of signing a pitcher like him to a long-term deal for big money. If enough teams are scared off by Sheets, he may have to take a short term deal to rehabilitee his value.

4. Ryan Dempster | RHP | Chicago Cubs - Rumors have the Cubs being big time players in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes and with Carlos Zambrano in the mix, Dempster might be the odd man out. However, there is also word of the Cubs offering Dempster a 4-year deal to stay in Chicago. Dempster had a career year in 2008, but it doesn’t jive with the rest of his career. His K and BB ratios are solid, but his LOB%, BABIP, and HR:FB ratio indicate a lot of luck. Plus, Dempster will be 32 in May.

5. Francisco Rodriguez | RHP | Los Angeles Angels - Yes, saves are nice and Rodriguez had a lot of them last year. However, his actual numbers were not all that different from the rest of his career. In fact, his K-rate actually dropped and he still walked over four batters per nine innings. Somebody will overpay Rodriguez and while they will get a very good reliever, the money he gets would still be better invested elsewhere.

6. Mark Teixeira | 1b | Los Angeles Angels - The most complete and safest player is the probably the most sought after player. He isn’t going to be cheap but he will provide whoever he signs with elite level power and gold glove defense for the next 5 or 6 years before we can expect a major drop off in production from his prime years. The Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Orioles will be pursing the first baseman aggressively.

7. Adam Dunn | 1b | Arizona Diamondbacks - Perhaps the most unappreciated free agent because of his lack of batting average and high number of strikeouts, but Dunn hits for power as evidenced by his 40 homeruns in 2008 and gets on base as evidenced by his career .381 OBP. He is a below average defensive player and has “old player skills”, which will likely lead to a bad long-term investment. However, for three years you can at least expect great power and OBP production from Dunn. I think he’ll come much cheaper than Teixeira.

8. Milton Bradley | OF | Texas Rangers - He’s always had talent, but health has always been an issue. For two straight years, Bradley has posted a .900+ OPS but he was undoubtedly lucky last year as evidenced by his .396 BABIP. His K% took a strong spike last season, which is concerning, but his power remains intact. Off field issues will accompany Bradley wherever he goes, but he might not be a bad investment for the next two seasons. He’ll likely get a longer-term contract however.

9. Rafael Furcal | SS | Los Angeles Dodgers - Furcal was hurt for much of 2008 but he was productive when healthy. It’s a small sample size, but it might ease some concerns about his poor 2007 season. I’m not sure about the contract he gets, but he would be a good 2-year investment. Three years is stretching it and four years is overpaying, but he is potentially an above average shortstop for whatever team he signs with.

10. Derek Lowe | RHP | Los Angeles Dodgers – Lowe has been a durable workhorse for years now and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Ideally, he would get two years, but he will almost assuredly get three years, maybe four if somebody is willing to overpay. His K-rates remain average, but he has excellent control and gets a ton of ground balls. He’s not an ace, but would be solid for any team one pitcher away from contention. His teammate Brad Penny, also a free agent, would be an excellent player to take a flyer on as he will have to rehab his value after a poor 2008 season.

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